The 2011 regular season concludes with a grand feast of football in primetime: the Dallas Cowboys (8-7) visit the New York Giants (8-7) in a winner-take-all battle to represent the NFL’s Glamour Division, the NFC East, in the postseason. The loser misses out on the playoffs and is left wondering what might have been. It’s a fitting way to kick off the New Year and celebrate the 100th meeting in the history of the Cowboys-Giants rivalry.
Here are three Cold, Hard Football Facts you need to know about Falcons-Saints before kickoff:
1. The Dallas Cowboys got no heart – especially on defense
The old cliché is that quarterbacks get too much credit when things go well and too much blame when things go poorly. Cowboys quarterback Romo certainly fits the bill in the latter case this year.
He’s been the target of endless criticism when things have gone bad this year for the Cowboys, as quarterbacks usually are, and as things often have for Dallas.
But the truth is that the real problem with the Cowboys is not at quarterback. The real problem is a dysfunctional, underachieving and gutless defense that treats late-game leads like slimy little eels that constantly slip through its fingers.
Five times in seven losses this year the Cowboys boasted a late game lead; five games in seven losses this year, the defense failed to make a single critical stop. The only two exceptions? A pair of blowout losses to Philly, in which Dallas trailed a combined 54-0 in the fourth quarter – the defense wilted so much in the first three quarters of those games that it didn’t have a chance to wilt in the fourth quarter.
There were many times when the offense and special teams contributed to the losses. No doubt. A Romo INT set up the Jets for a game-winning field goal in Week 1. But the Dallas D had already given New York life in the fourth-quarter by allowing Mark Sanchez to slice right through it during what might have been the most impressive drive the Jets produced all year: the ets QB completed 4 of 5 passes for 78 yards, capping a key fourth-quarter drive with a 26-yard TD to Plaxico Burress that changed the course of the game.
Romo also threw a pair of second-half pick-sixes against the Lions, at a time when Dallas sported a 27-3 lead. But Dallas held on to a 30-17 lead in the fourth quarter, when the defense allowed the Lions to rip off the final 17 points of the game.
Meanwhile, the truth about Romo is that he has been hugely effective this year. He’s thrown just nine INT in 485 attempts this season. That’s an INT rate of 1.86 percent, lower than that of high-powered notables Tom Brady (1.91%), Drew Brees (2.09%) and, yes, Eli Manning (2.88).
Romo’s 102.2 passer rating, usually a reliable indicator of team success, trails that of only Aaron Rodgers (122.5), Brees (108.4) and Brady (105.1). That’s pretty good company.
Romo has also been one of the NFL’s best in the fourth quarter, averaging a gaudy 8.5 YPA with 9 TD, 2 INT and a 103.6 rating.
The quarterback is not without blame. He has made a couple of notable gaffes that generated plenty of headlines and endless replays. But the fact remains that in game after game, all season long, the Dallas D had chances to make stops and win tight games and failed to come through almost every single time.
2. Eli Manning proved his clutch-osity yet again in 2011
The season began amid a swirl of controversy for the Giants quarterback. He had the gall to compare himself over the summer to the quarterbacks universally acknowledged as the game’s elite, including Tom Brady and his own brother, Peyton.
The critics pounced. But in the eyes of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, Manning had already proven himself an elite QB back in Super Bowl XLII.
Manning that night was a principal player in not one but two of the seminal moments in NFL history – a pair of jaw-dropping events that took place in the space of a single February evening and that quite likely will never be match or surpassed for as long as they play pro football.
The Greatest Upset Ever – New York’s win over New England in Super Bowl XLII was and will probably always remain the single greatest upset pro football has ever produced, at least in championship play.
Super Bowl XLII was the greatest statistical mismatch in Super Bowl history. In fact, it was the greatest statistical mismatch in any NFL championship game since the 13-0 Bears faced the 8-5 Giants way back in 1934. (The Giants, by the way, engineered a shocking upset in that game, too, the second ever NFL title tilt.)
The Patriots boasted the best record in NFL history (16-0); The Giants were 10-6, tied for the worst record of any Super Bowl champion (1988 49ers, 2010 Packers).
The Patriots boasted the best passer rating of any Super Bowl combatant (116.0), the second best mark of all time; The Giants fielded the worst Defensive Passer Ratingof any champion in NFL history (83.4)
The Patriots boasted the greatest scoring differential in NFL history (+315); The Giants fielded the lowest scoring differential of any champion in NFL history (+22)
The Patriots scored 589 points, the most by any team in history; The Giants surrendered 351 points, the second most by any Super Bowl champion
The Patriots were 6 games better than Giants in regular season – the biggest differential in any championship game in NFL history.
Put another way, the Patriots were the most dominant team in postwar history; the Giants are easily the worst team in the postwar era to win a championship. The Giants, by any measure, were barely an above average team. Yet thanks to a stout defense and a pair of clutch touchdown drives by Manning, the Giants toppled the most dominant team in postwar NFL history.
The Greatest Drive Ever – It’s one thing to be an architect of the Greatest Upset Ever. But to slay the beast with the Greatest Drive Ever is what makes Eli a seminal figure in pro football history.
There are certainly a number of contenders for Greatest Drive Ever: Bobby Layne and the Lions upending the dynastic Browns in the 1953 NFL title game; Johnny Unitas at the end of regulation to tie the Giants in the 1958 NFL championship game; Bart Starr’s frosty TD drive and scoring run to beat Dallas in the 1967 title tilt (the Ice Bowl); Joe Montana shredding the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII; Ben Roethlisberger leading the Steelers past the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. (We chronicled the greatest drives in Super Bowl history herea couple years ago.)
But Eli stands alone among all these on the list: he’s the only quarterback in NFL history to execute a championship winning drive in the final two minutes when anything less than a touchdown meant defeat.
Layne threw his game-winning TD pass with 2:08 left to play. Unitas settled for a field goal before Alan Ameche scored his touchdown in overtime. Starr, Montana and Roethlisberger each trailed by 3 points and could have settled for field goals.
Only Manning faced the pressure of knowing that a touchdown meant victory and anything less meant defeat. (We discussed this phenomenon after the game a few years ago).
Those incredible clutch qualities have continued here in 2011, with one of Manning’s best seasons for game-saving heroics.
Consider these findings from Cold, Hard Football Facts“Captain Comeback” columnist Scott Kacsmar:
Manning has thrown 14 fourth-quarter TD passes this year, tied with Johnny Unitas (1959) and Peyton Manning (2002) for the most in NFL history.
Manning has led five game-winning drives in 2011, tying former Giants great QB Charlie Conerly (1959), for the most in franchise history.
Critics may have scoffed at Manning’s assertion that he’s one of the game’s best. But he’s proven in the past that he can deliver in the clutch. And he’s proven he can deliver time and again here in the 2011 season.
Manning has been paired with one of the worst defenses in football this year (No. 28 in total defense, No. 28 in scoring defense), yet his production and his heroics are a key reason the Giants are win one away from capturing the NFC East title
3. Week 14 was a perfect microcosm of who these two teams are in 2011
The Cowboys statistically dominated the Giants in Dallas back in Week 14. But the Giants won the game, 37-34. Manning once again engineered a couple late drives in that game. The Cowboys defense once again wilted under pressure.
That first encounter of 2011 was, in other words, a perfect microcosm of the way these two teams have performed all season: the statistically stout Cowboys failed to live up to expectations and the statistically middling Giants made the big plays when they needed to make them.
Just look at the quarterback stat lines from that game:
Manning: 27 of 47, 57.4%, 400 yards, 8.5 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT, 90.7 rating
Romo: 21 of 31, 67.7%, 321 yards, 10.4 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT, 141.3 rating
Romo was more accurate, had a higher average per attempt, through for more TDs, fewer INTs and boasted a much higher passer rating – those numbers always equal victory.
Or always did.
Romo that day became the first and only quarterback since 1960 to pass the ball 30 or more times, post a passer rating of 140.0 or better – and lose the game.
In fact, the Cowboys have been much better than the Giants – at least on paper – all year long. Here’s how the team NFC East rivals stack up in several commonly used indicators of success, as well as in many of our Quality Stats– those are stats that have a direct correlation to winning football games.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts
Both of these clubs have struggled to win big games in December. The Cowboys, for example, are 8-12 in December games during the Romo Era (since 2007).
Coach Tom Coughlin’s Giants, meanwhile, have been even worse, especially at home. They’re just 5-12 at home in December since Coughlin took over the team in 2004.
But there is one team that Coughlin’s Giants have consistently beaten: the Dallas Cowboys. New York is an impressive 10-6 against Dallas under Coughlin, and 5-2 in December and January. Those Giants victories including a season-ending 28-24 win on Jan. 2, 2005, to close out the 2004 season; and a huge upset of the top-seeded Cowboys in the 2007-08 postseason.
The patterns for each deep are so long and deep that they’ve become well-worn grooves. So look for a similar outcome here at the end of the 2011 season.
The Pick: N.Y. Giants 31, Dallas 26
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Season record:12-4
Week 1 pick: Detroit 24, Tampa 20
Week 1 result: Detroit 27, Tampa 20
Week 2 pick: New England 27, San Diego 24
Week 2 result: New England 35, San Diego 21
Week 3 pick: New Orleans 30, Houston 23
Week 3 result: New Orleans 40, Houston 33
Week 4 pick: Detroit 26, Dallas 24
Week 4 result: Detroit 34, Dallas 30
Week 5 pick: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 24
Week 5 result: Green Bay 25, Atlanta 14
Week 6 pick: Detroit 23, San Francisco 20
Week 6 result: San Francisco 25, Detroit 19
Week 7 pick: Tennessee 27, Houston 21
Week 7 result :Houston 41, Tennessee 7
Week 8 pick: Kansas City 23, San Diego 21
Week 8 result: Kansas City 23, San Diego 20
Week 9 pick: Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 17
Week 9 result: Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 20
Week 10 pick: San Francisco 24, N.Y. Giants 19
Week 10 result: San Francisco 27, N.Y. Giants 20
Week 11 pick: Chicago 28, San Diego 17
Week 11 result: Chicago 31, San Diego 20
Week 12 pick: New Orleans 31, N.Y. Giants 28
Week 12 result: New Orleans 49, N.Y. Giants 24
Week 13 pick: Atlanta 20, Houston 16
Week 13 result: Houston 17, Atlanta 10
Week 14 pick: Denver 24, Chicago 17
Week 14 result: Denver 13, Chicago 10
Week 15 pick: New England 27, Denver 24
Week 15 result: New England 41, Denver 23
Week 16 pick: New Orleans 35, Atlanta 24
Week 16 result: New Orleans 45, Atlanta 16
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NFL: Do the Ravens need home-field advantage?
NFL: Can the Lions make noise in the playoffs?
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