In September 2011, I took on the challenge of picking National Football League (NFL) games against the spread. The 2011-12 NFL Regular Season is over. Here is a recap of my 2011-12 NFL picks against the spread.
Challenge
My challenge was to successfully pick as many NFL games against the spread as possible. I selected at least three games each week. I used Danny Sheridan's odds as my source for the point spreads. I always published my picks before games were played.
Metrics
Common sense dictates that picking half of the games correctly would mean breaking even. That is not the case in real-world betting. Casinos charge a vigorish, or vig, when you place a bet. The vig is their take, no matter which team wins or loses. So in reality, you have to finish better than 50% to break even. For this challenge, I assumed a 4.5% vig. Without going through the details, I would have to pick at least 53% of the games correctly to break even.
Goal
My goal was to correctly pick at least 53% of the games correctly. However, I hoped to finish much higher than that.
Results
After 17 weeks, my final record is 31 wins and 25 losses. That is a success rate of 55%. So I am profitable, barely. It took some good weeks toward the end of the season to put me in the black. I am not thrilled with these results, but this was my first attempt at this.
Conclusion
This was a very fun challenge for me. It kept me interested in a lot of NFL games. However, I am not quitting my day job to be a professional bettor any time soon. I will keep trying though. There were some games this season that played out exactly the way I predicted. But there were also games that completely blindsided me. I will keep trying because that winning formula seems close. Practice makes perfect.
Thanks to those of you who followed my column this season. Next season, I hope to incorporate a friendly head-to-head competition with you readers. Take it from me. It is not as easy as you might think.
Good luck with your future picks and thanks again for your support.
More from Edwin Torres:
My 2011-12 NFL Picks for Week 17 Against the Spread: Fan's Take
Edwin Torres has been a fan of the Dallas Cowboys since the days of Tony Dorsett and Roger Staubach. As a longtime fan of the National Football League, Edwin follows many interesting games and stories each week. For more articles, follow him on Twitter @FlipPoker.
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